Linear Regression and Russian Equipment Losses Predicting Casualties

Here are the findings from a software analysis called “multiple linear regression.” When the Russian invaders lose armored personnel carriers (“APCs”) or artillery (“Arty”), those losses most strongly and reliably predict casualties of personnel (“Soldiers”). Curiously, airplanes that crash stand out as associated with deaths of soldiers on the ground. Next, the destruction of multiple launch rocket systems (“MLRS”) also reliably predict the number of casualties, but somewhat less assuredly.

Linear Regression and Russian Equipment Losses Predicting Casualties

Here are the findings from a software analysis called “multiple linear regression.” When the Russian invaders lose armored personnel carriers (“APCs”) or artillery (“Arty”), those losses most strongly and reliably predict casualties of personnel (“Soldiers”). Curiously, airplanes that crash stand out as associated with deaths of soldiers on the ground. Next, the destruction of multiple launch rocket systems (“MLRS”) also reliably predict the number of casualties, but somewhat less assuredly.

Explore Factors with Entropy, Information Gain, and Mutual Information

Whenever a question collects data that is neither numeric nor text, it is likely a categorical, like Male/Female or Republican/Democrat/Independent. Once that kind of data has been collected, how can you better understand those categorical variable (aka factors) findings? The entropy of a factor variable, such as COO titles, measures the amount of randomness in the distribution of the variable. Here, “distribution” simply means the string of answers the survey collects.

Be Cognizant of Panel Providers for Surveys

In the fourth quarter of 2022, the law firm Katten Muchin Rosenman wanted to survey middle-market private equity investors. To help the firm do so, it engaged a “leading global third-party panel provider platform.” The brief methodology section in the report does not disclose the name of the panel provider or how it found 100 U.S. based respondents. Meanwhile, what is a panel provider (aka research panel) and what do they offer survey sponsors?

Issue a Press Release about the Survey and Report

An omnipresent piece of the publicity puzzle is the press release. To let the world know about your survey or the report based on one, firms and vendors in the legal market issue press releases. They send them to a selection of news outlets that might want to write about their undertaking or findings. Reporters call about the release, ask questions and, hopefully, an editor approves their article for publication.